Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e0c…4eb3 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+10%) realized +$252 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days+$238
14 days+$218
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$318
other 24% −$134
crypto 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 46% +3.4%
≤30d 29 -2.7% -12.0% 45% 45% +2.2%
≤90d 29 -2.7% -12.0% 45% 45% +2.2%
all 29 -2.7% -12.0% 45% 45% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 45% +2.2%
10% -20.4% 45% -7.6%
15% -28.1% 45% -16.5%
20% -35.1% 45% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$44 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized+$252
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $188 −$32 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $146 $141 −$5 (-3%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $131 +$69 +52%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $182 +$95 +52%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $232 +$127 +55%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $132 +$177 +134%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $132 −$130 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$127 +250%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $30 +$32 +105%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$28 +93%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $31 +$44 +146%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$27 +90%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$25 +83%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $31 +$44 +146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 19h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 19h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $132 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $132 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $131 23h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $182 23h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $132 23h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $232 23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 45h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 45h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $30 46h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 46h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 46h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 46h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $30 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $30 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.11 · official $447.11 (match) · 63 history records