Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e0e…a426 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%31W / 64L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$9
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
sports 30% +$8
other 29% −$9
politics 4% +$13
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 39 -0.4% -9.8% 28% 3% -9.5%
all 95 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses31 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage491d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $456 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $149 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $173 +$12 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $153 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $139 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $112 −$8 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $179 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $532 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $274 −$4 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $525 −$23 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $5 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $366 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $355 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $177 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $201 +$7 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $169 +$21 +12%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $153 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $895 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $161 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $936 +$3 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $227 −$2 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $239 +$2 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $939 −$3 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,032 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $939 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $368 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $938 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $938 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 15? Aug 16 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $137 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $68 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $69 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $136 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $59 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $59 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $149 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $149 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $150 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $150 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $137 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $137 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $137 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $64 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $59 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $136 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $150 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $131 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.08 · official $136.94 (match) · 395 history records