Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e0f…9556 world 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16,410 (-5%) realized −$16,410 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 89L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,387per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,149
7 days−$1,149
14 days−$1,839
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$15,882
other 14% +$6,034
politics 12% −$8,861
crypto 4% +$1,119
economics 1% +$234
tech 0% −$15
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.5% -23.6% 20% 0% -32.8%
≤30d 17 -18.6% -26.4% 35% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 63 -24.6% -31.8% 22% 13% -31.7%
all 128 -14.6% -22.7% 30% 16% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 16% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 9% -22.8%
15% -36.8% 3% -30.3%
20% -43.0% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$2,509) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$984 vs −$641 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,410
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage210d
Avg bet$2,387
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $303 −$64 -21%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $397 +$15 +4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $2,998 −$861 -29%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $757 −$239 -32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3,504 +$72 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,311 +$245 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,309 −$1,008 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 03 $1,027 −$879 -86%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 02 $100 −$5 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,607 +$1,129 +9%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 29 $10 −$8 -76%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2,041 −$136 -7%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $6,713 +$1,864 +28%
Will "Garden" or "Grove" be in the headlines this week? May 25 $100 −$97 -96%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 22 $2,005 +$144 +7%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 18 $2,452 −$1,269 -52%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $2,900 +$593 +20%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 15 $3,382 −$2,156 -64%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? May 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 8? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Cuba" this week? May 12 $99 −$32 -33%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? May 05 $10 −$2 -19%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? May 05 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,909 −$145 -8%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $763 +$319 +42%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 29 $19 −$1 -5%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2,509 −$14 -1%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Apr 23 $189 −$30 -16%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 23 $10 $0 -3%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Apr 22 $199 −$167 -84%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $4,021 −$1,538 -38%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $7,703 −$2,823 -37%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 19 $1,001 −$610 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $1,560 +$137 +9%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 17 $1,499 −$1,197 -80%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? Apr 17 $1,501 −$418 -28%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $49 −$21 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $5,979 −$1,145 -19%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $4,014 −$280 -7%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1,010 −$589 -58%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 14 $1,000 −$6 -1%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $3,478 +$689 +20%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? Apr 11 $48 −$19 -41%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 09 $10 −$1 -7%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $2,513 −$1,757 -70%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $3,021 −$508 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL No 98¢ $210 18m
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? SELL No 99¢ $413 32m
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes $29 47m
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 93¢ $100 48m
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 93¢ $100 48m
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 48m
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 94¢ $99 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 94¢ $99 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 22¢ $2,137 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 31¢ $999 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $1,999 2h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $334 2h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $185 2h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $757 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 14¢ $10 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $10 3h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,510 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 564 history records