Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e10…973c crypto 1767 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$845 (+8%) realized −$2,104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%1653W / 528L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,986
7 days−$1,974
14 days−$1,974
30 days−$1,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$51
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 888 -45.6% -50.8% 51% 6% -51.5%
≤30d 1032 -39.8% -45.5% 56% 9% -46.3%
≤90d 2181 -19.7% -27.3% 76% 6% -24.9%
all 2181 -19.7% -27.3% 76% 6% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 6% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 2% -32.1%
15% -40.6% 1% -38.7%
20% -46.4% 1% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1653 / 528
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2181 / 1767
History coverage58d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records