Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e11…644a sports 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$903 (-9%) realized −$891 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%77W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$51
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$817
finance 30% −$72
crypto 1% −$3
other 1% −$20
politics 0% −$7
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% -2.9%
≤30d 16 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 56% -6.0%
≤90d 31 -7.2% -16.0% 65% 48% -16.4%
all 115 -7.5% -16.3% 67% 43% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 43% -18.0%
10% -24.3% 25% -25.8%
15% -31.6% 15% -33.0%
20% -38.3% 6% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$56 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$891
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses77 / 38
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 119
History coverage170d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Under 66¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Under 73¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $78 +$28 +36%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $101 +$39 +38%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 16 $101 −$13 -13%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $91 +$35 +38%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $91 +$28 +31%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $91 −$32 -35%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 14 $10 −$3 -34%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 10 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will SS&C Technologies (SSNC) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 24 $1 $0 +9%
Will Coursera (COUR) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 24 $1 $0 +13%
Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will Honeywell International (HON) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 $0 +9%
Will S&T Bancorp (STBA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 $0 +12%
Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 $0 +32%
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Infosys (INFY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Clippers vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5 Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 153.5 Mar 29 $50 +$19 +37%
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5 Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5 Mar 29 $49 +$28 +58%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 02 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $380 +$30 +8%
Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 24 $320 +$56 +18%
Will ICU Medical (ICUI) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 20 $300 +$23 +8%
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 19 $260 +$35 +14%
Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 19 $240 +$22 +9%
Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 18 $225 +$18 +8%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 17 $179 +$47 +26%
Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 17 $150 +$24 +16%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 15 $150 −$87 -58%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 Feb 15 $100 −$87 -87%
Will Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $200 +$31 +15%
Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Feb 12 $250 −$190 -76%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 229.5 Feb 12 $200 −$154 -77%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $100 −$69 -69%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Feb 12 $100 +$51 +51%
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5 Feb 12 $50 +$15 +30%
T20 World Cup: England vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 12 $150 +$40 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 40¢ $54 20m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 SELL Over 98¢ $1 31m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 SELL Over 98¢ $135 34m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 56m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 SELL Under 52¢ $153 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 SELL Over 98¢ $107 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 SELL Under 44¢ $64 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 71¢ $78 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 SELL Over 99¢ $139 27h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 SELL Over 65¢ $2 28h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 28h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 SELL Over 59¢ $86 28h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 28h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 SELL Under 99¢ $56 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 SELL Under 99¢ $68 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 71¢ $91 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 SELL Under 99¢ $117 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 75¢ $91 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 SELL Over 53¢ $0 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 SELL Over 45¢ $58 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 68¢ $91 2d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 SELL Under 99¢ $14 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 SELL Over 52¢ $7 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 SELL Under 99¢ $14 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.55 · official $16.01 (match) · 513 history records