Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e15…4508 other 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 242L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 26% −$21
politics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$8
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage133d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $231 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $545 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $265 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $315 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $327 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $580 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $302 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $461 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 31 $740 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 22m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 3h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 10h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 31h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 33h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 34h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 38h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 40h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 41h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $59 44h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 47h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1355 history records