Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e15…2e4d crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$367 (-23%) realized −$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$179
14 days−$393
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$143
sports 20% −$219
crypto 13% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +27.1% +15.0% 62% 62% -31.7%
≤30d 47 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 53% -31.9%
≤90d 47 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 53% -31.9%
all 47 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 53% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 53% -31.9%
10% -18.9% 43% -38.4%
15% -26.7% 36% -44.3%
20% -33.9% 26% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$34 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage11d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$14 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 +$37 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$7 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 +$3 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$7 +206%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 −$73 -90%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 −$11 -62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $238 −$235 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$19 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $351 +$34 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 74¢ $86 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $75 12h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $4 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 38h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $4 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $15 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $63 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records