Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e18…0fb0 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%71W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 72 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.4 per $1 lost it wins $9.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses71 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage256d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $293 $293 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $255 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $561 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 6? May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? Apr 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 18? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 9? Apr 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Apr 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Apr 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 17? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? Mar 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? Mar 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 18? Feb 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 28? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 21? Jan 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jan 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? Jan 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? Jan 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 24? Dec 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 11? Dec 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 26? Dec 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 19? Nov 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 7? Nov 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on November 5? Nov 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 4? Nov 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 3? Nov 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 2? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 31? Nov 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? Oct 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 29? Oct 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 28? Oct 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on October 27? Oct 28 $24 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 26? Oct 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 25? Oct 26 $24 $0 +0%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 25 $1 $0 +0%
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Oct 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on October 24? Oct 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $293 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $336 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $255 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $561 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $560 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $560 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $26 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 109d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $26 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 18? BUY No 100¢ $26 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $26 141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 21? BUY No 99¢ $26 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? BUY No 100¢ $26 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $26 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 24? BUY No 100¢ $25 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.91 · official $592.91 (match) · 146 history records