Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e19…7add weather 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$4
weather 20% +$2
sports 8% +$59
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 31 +2.1% -7.6% 74% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -8.6%
10% -16.4% 3% -17.4%
15% -24.5% 3% -25.4%
20% -31.9% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.32 per $1 lost it wins $7.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage175d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 27? May 26 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 8? May 13 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 55°F or below on April 10? May 13 $201 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20? Mar 21 $129 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 17 $496 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 15? Mar 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $675 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 6? Mar 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4? Mar 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Ali Khamenei in February? Mar 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $842 −$1 -0%
Nets vs. Celtics Feb 27 $455 −$5 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 2 Feb 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 0°C or below on February 26? Feb 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 26? Feb 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or below on Februar Feb 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February Feb 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 11? Feb 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Feb 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 51°F or below on February 3? Feb 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Feb 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on January 11 Feb 10 $85 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Feb 10 $100 +$64 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $143 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $105 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $195 28d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 55°F or below on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $201 75d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $171 77d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $498 92d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $498 93d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $129 96d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $678 96d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $679 97d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $496 97d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $496 99d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 100d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $654 102d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $655 103d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 103d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $667 104d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $675 104d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $675 106d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $51 110d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $54 112d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $841 112d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $842 115d
Will Trump talk to Ali Khamenei in February? BUY No 100¢ $79 116d
Nets vs. Celtics SELL Celtics 90¢ $450 116d
Nets vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 91¢ $455 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $135 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $135 116d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $42 118d
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.91 · official $444.24 (match) · 82 history records