Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e20…0ee4 other 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%20W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$7
sports 28% −$5
politics 20% −$3
crypto 10% $0
economics 6% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% +$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 230 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses20 / 210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage175d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $32 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $135 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 15 $69 $0 -1%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 13 $397 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $133 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 11 $84 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $39 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 07 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 13d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 13d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 27d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $36 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $36 39d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $34 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $34 93d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 93d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $39 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 94¢ $26 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 94¢ $26 94d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $30 94d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $30 94d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 96¢ $28 94d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 96¢ $28 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $40 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $40 94d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 94¢ $27 94d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $27 94d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $39 94d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $39 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $36 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $36 95d
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 91¢ $28 95d
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 91¢ $28 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $33 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.24 · official $38.24 (match) · 867 history records