Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e21…1eb1 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 57L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$21
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$30
other 20% −$4
sports 19% +$2
politics 17% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 26 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 37% 6% -9.3%
all 97 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage472d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $505 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $171 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$6 +13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $182 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $183 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $163 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $196 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $31 −$3 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $385 +$13 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $166 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $254 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $161 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $5 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $372 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $162 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $291 −$5 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $151 +$10 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $144 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $162 −$3 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,178 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,071 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,407 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $1,178 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 27 $18 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jul 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jul 19 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $187 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $187 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $97 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $90 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $187 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $162 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $53 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $182 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $182 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $159 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $144 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $146 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $182 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.52 · official $32.22 (match) · 323 history records