Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e24…da32 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 27% +$3
politics 16% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 22% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 18 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 18 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 58 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage319d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $18 −$4 -22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $10 −$2 -23%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $46 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $33 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $8 $0 +3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $9 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 02 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $6 $0 +3%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Bolivia Election? Aug 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 87°F or higher on August 13? Aug 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 07 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $9 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $23 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $33 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $8 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $9 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $2 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $35 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $12 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.23 · official $29.23 (match) · 172 history records