Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e25…dd7e world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2
other 32% +$4
politics 22% +$1
culture 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 50 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage369d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $24 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July? Aug 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the Reconciliation bill receive 219 or more votes? Aug 10 $8 $0 +4%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent? Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $31 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $27 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $18 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $13 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $2 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.80 · official $28.80 (match) · 162 history records