Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e29…f79b politics 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 674d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$18
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

674d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage674d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Mar 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC South? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nico Collins be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Trudeau out in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Tomlin win NFL Coach of the Year? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Nov 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 19d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 25d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 41d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 46d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 90d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 90d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 95d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 96d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 100d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 100d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? SELL No 99¢ $55 102d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 102d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 105d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 106d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $55 108d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $56 109d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 113d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 113d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $56 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records