Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1E 0x1e2b…d62c other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$25 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate70%33W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$46
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$143
crypto 17% −$20
sports 6% +$117
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +26.3% +14.2% 70% 70% -5.9%
≤30d 28 +9.2% -1.2% 61% 61% -10.8%
≤90d 32 +8.4% -1.9% 66% 53% -10.7%
all 47 +8.2% -2.1% 70% 49% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 49% -11.2%
10% -11.5% 40% -19.7%
15% -20.0% 38% -27.5%
20% -27.9% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$46 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses33 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage229d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 78¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$41 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$12 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $4 $0 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Weber State Wildcats May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) May 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Feb 22 $100 +$30 +30%
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 21 $76 +$75 +99%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 15 $40 +$36 +89%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Nov 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $79 −$79 -100%
XRP Up or Down on November 5? Nov 06 $45 +$8 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down on November 4? Nov 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? Nov 05 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 4? Nov 05 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 4? Nov 05 $45 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $26 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 89¢ $50 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $80 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.40 · official $287.40 · 93 history records