Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e31…594b crypto 1473 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized +$251 · open −$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate91%1331W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$30
14 days−$41
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$90
politics 10% −$268
other 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -0.9% -10.4% 98% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 798 -2.0% -11.3% 91% 18% -10.1%
≤90d 1460 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 23% -9.8%
all 1460 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 23% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 23% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,133
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$266
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1331 / 129
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1460 / 1473
History coverage55d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $500 $768 +$268 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $500 $232 −$268 (-54%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,132.75 · official $1,132.75 (match) · 3226 history records