Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e35…ee1a sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-2%) realized −$109 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate72%143W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$56
other 16% −$138
crypto 6% −$33
world 1% −$5
finance 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.0% +7.6% 100% 100% +7.6%
≤30d 2 -40.5% -46.2% 50% 50% -57.1%
≤90d 197 -1.4% -10.8% 72% 69% -11.9%
all 198 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 69% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 69% -11.8%
10% -19.1% 48% -20.3%
15% -27.0% 14% -28.0%
20% -34.1% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses143 / 55
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage91d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Under 70¢ 100¢ $39 $56 +$17 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $25 +$6 +26%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $30 +$15 +50%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $80 +$7 +8%
FC Andorra vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $25 −$10 -41%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 −$10 -49%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $100 −$12 -12%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 10 $30 +$9 +29%
Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $25 +$9 +36%
Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $30 −$16 -54%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $30 −$16 -54%
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $20 +$8 +41%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 May 03 $25 +$4 +14%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $25 +$7 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Pisa SC vs. US Lecce end in a draw? May 02 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $20 +$8 +38%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $20 +$6 +29%
CA Juventud vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $25 −$25 -100%
CD Riestra vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Mirassol FC vs. Club Always Ready: O/U 4.5 Apr 30 $20 +$6 +27%
Caracas FC vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $25 +$9 +34%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 29 $26 −$11 -41%
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $20 +$4 +18%
Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $25 +$23 +89%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $20 +$6 +29%
Gil Vicente FC vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? Apr 27 $20 +$6 +32%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $20 +$5 +26%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Apr 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 26 $24 +$5 +21%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Will FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Apr 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $20 +$5 +23%
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $20 −$12 -60%
Córdoba CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw? Apr 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $39 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $39 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $33 22h
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $50 29d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $25 32d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 32d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $26 36d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $80 38d
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? SELL No 52¢ $15 42d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? SELL No 40¢ $10 42d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $20 42d
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $25 42d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 76¢ $89 42d
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $39 42d
Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 42d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 42d
FC Andorra vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $25 42d
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 42d
Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $25 42d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 42d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 27¢ $14 42d
Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 42d
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $20 46d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $25 47d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 48d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 48d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $25 48d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 48d
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $25 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.69 · official $55.69 (match) · 411 history records