Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e35…2614 sports 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,805 (-7%) realized −$2,064 · open −$11,741
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%117W / 100L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$2,177est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$15,311
other 8% −$14,778
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 50% -29.4%
≤30d 9 -32.4% -38.8% 44% 44% -29.8%
≤90d 217 -13.8% -22.0% 54% 43% -20.8%
all 217 -13.8% -22.0% 54% 43% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 43% -20.8%
10% -29.5% 35% -28.4%
15% ← realistic here -36.3% 26% -35.3%
20% -42.6% 19% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$575 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$15,971
Realized−$2,064
Unrealized−$11,741
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses117 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,177
Open positions4
Markets (closed)217 / 221
History coverage62d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 98¢ 100¢ $15,581 $15,957 +$376 (+2%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 38¢ 0¢ $3,583 $5 −$3,578 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ 0¢ $3,943 $4 −$3,939 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 50¢ 0¢ $2,845 $3 −$2,842 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ 0¢ $1,384 $2 −$1,381 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6,540 +$5,404 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $159 −$155 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14,783 −$14,623 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,549 +$1,395 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $6,415 +$2,400 +37%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $4,947 −$1,920 -39%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $185 −$184 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $18 −$17 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $11 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 14 $193 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $593 −$590 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 13 $595 +$104 +18%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $1,054 −$373 -35%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 13 $2,156 −$1,934 -90%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 13 $1,097 +$382 +35%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $1,744 −$1,714 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $1,781 +$306 +17%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner May 12 $1,593 +$155 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 12 $1,063 +$566 +53%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $686 +$334 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $777 +$472 +61%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs VfB eSports (BO3) - Prime League 1st Di May 12 $703 +$66 +9%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 12 $947 −$442 -47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 12 $880 +$103 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $732 −$719 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1,087 +$521 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 12 $141 +$28 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $503 +$117 +23%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 11 $141 +$43 +30%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 11 $222 −$219 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $120 +$212 +177%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 10 $613 −$605 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 10 $83 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner May 10 $55 −$36 -65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $324 −$324 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $296 −$292 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 10 $206 −$204 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $326 −$318 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 4 Winner May 10 $82 +$28 +35%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 10 $1,769 −$444 -25%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $1,038 +$136 +13%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 09 $999 +$39 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $607 +$379 +62%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 09 $455 −$445 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $847 −$582 -69%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 09 $160 −$156 -97%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner May 09 $758 −$745 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner May 09 $1,032 −$1,030 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $105 12m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $51 12m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $109 12m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $42 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $11 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $99 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $1 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $50 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $30 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $50 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $50 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $14 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $5 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $46 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $10,723 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $80 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $392 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $77 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $29 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $16 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $45 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $999 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $16 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $109 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $94 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $16 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $235 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $13 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $61 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $190 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,970.73 · official $15,970.73 (match) · 1480 history records