Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e35…7ecb politics 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 3% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -0.6% -10.1% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage629d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $54 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Nov 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
No one announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Braga win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship? Dec 20 $0 $0 -7%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
2024 November hottest on record? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weeken Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Packers win the NFC North? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 14h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 33d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 33d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 39d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 40d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $54 63d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $54 64d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 65d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 65d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 68d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 69d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 72d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 73d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 74d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 75d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 83d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 83d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $54 90d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $54 91d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 97d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 98d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $54 99d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $54 100d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $54 109d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $54 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records