Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1e36…2985 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$272 (-14%) realized −$259 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$335
world 5% −$13
tech 3% +$8
sports 2% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.9% +14.8% 55% 45% -21.1%
≤30d 11 +26.9% +14.8% 55% 45% -21.1%
≤90d 11 +26.9% +14.8% 55% 45% -21.1%
all 11 +26.9% +14.8% 55% 45% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 45% -21.1%
10% +3.8% 45% -28.7%
15% -6.2% 36% -35.6%
20% -15.4% 36% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$143 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $454 −$452 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $540 +$35 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$163 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $172 +$181 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $45 +$12 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $454 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $39 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $466 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $45 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.25 · official $87.25 (match) · 29 history records