Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e39…77f3 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,500 (-18%) realized −$4,099 · open −$401
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,200
7 days−$1,474
14 days−$2,000
30 days−$4,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,211
other 2% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +25.6% +13.7% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 27 +46.0% +32.1% 26% 26% -46.1%
≤90d 51 +2.6% -7.1% 27% 27% -42.0%
all 70 +9.3% -1.2% 34% 33% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 33% -26.8%
10% -10.6% 33% -33.8%
15% -19.2% 31% -40.2%
20% -27.2% 30% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$301 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,099
Unrealized−$401
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage113d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 48¢ $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $508 +$515 +102%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $517 +$483 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$430 +837%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $96 −$93 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $488 −$480 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $205 +$474 +232%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $407 −$400 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $507 +$454 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $404 −$404 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) May 29 $123 −$123 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 29 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 29 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $508 −$508 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 29 $830 −$830 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 23 $1,015 +$443 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $504 −$504 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $611 +$526 +86%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) May 19 $205 −$205 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $508 −$508 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 14 $1,522 +$478 +31%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 14 $508 −$508 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 14 $509 −$509 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $508 +$546 +107%
76ers vs. Celtics May 05 $204 −$204 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 02 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Apr 19 $200 +$156 +78%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Apr 13 $100 +$97 +97%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 06 $195 −$195 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $508 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $407 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 51¢ $517 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 44¢ $1,017 7h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 56¢ $1,013 34h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 49¢ $1,015 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $202 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 20¢ $96 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $508 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $488 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 6d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 67¢ $667 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 20¢ $102 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 20¢ $102 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $102 7d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 27¢ $102 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $305 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $204 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 32¢ $102 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 45¢ $203 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $507 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 14¢ $103 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 40¢ $98 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 39¢ $204 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers $103 25d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 53¢ $830 25d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $508 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 45¢ $305 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.42 (match) · 168 history records