Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1E 0x1e39…2390 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$103 (+23%) realized +$121 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$35

7 days+$39

14 days+$39

30 days+$39

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+22.7%	+11.0%	36%	36%	+33.8%
≤30d	14	+22.7%	+11.0%	36%	36%	+33.8%
≤90d	15	+42.1%	+28.6%	40%	40%	+110.9%
all	16	+38.8%	+25.6%	38%	38%	+76.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.6%	38%	+76.5%
10%	+13.6%	31%	+59.6%
15%	+2.6%	31%	+44.2%
20%	-7.5%	31%	+30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +133% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late +115% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$5 · ×6.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage

Net worth$242

Realized+$121

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 24

History coverage108d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$100	$92	−$8 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$100	$83	−$17 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$50	$57	+$7 (+15%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Morocco	38¢	38¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$10	+$35	+344%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$5	+$12	+227%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$10	+$8	+74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$5	+$28	+550%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+22%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Mar 30	$38	+$119	+314%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Mar 16	$43	−$5	-11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Morocco	38¢	$10	46m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic	BUY	42¢	$5	47m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co	BUY	25¢	$5	25h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co	BUY	10¢	$5	25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY	22¢	$10	2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end	BUY	6¢	$3	2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	SELL Egypt	97¢	$17	2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	29¢	$5	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	99¢	$18	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?	SELL Yes	9¢	$6	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	29¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$32	6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$19	6d
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	SELL No	97¢	$157	85d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.95 · official $246.95 · 41 history records