Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e3b…c850 crypto 1282 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167,514 (-22%) realized −$167,601 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%605W / 776L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day59.8pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$38,064
sports 2% +$6,294
other 1% −$19
world 0% −$1,019
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -66.6% -69.8% 16% 16% -82.5%
≤30d 695 -24.4% -31.6% 41% 40% -46.6%
≤90d 1381 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 44% -35.2%
all 1381 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 44% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 44% -35.2%
10% -33.0% 43% -41.4%
15% ← realistic here -39.5% 43% -47.0%
20% -45.4% 41% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$814) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$485 vs −$712 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$4,487
Realized−$167,601
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses605 / 776
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1381 / 1282
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$590
Trades / day59.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $800 $811 +$11 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 52¢ $500 $526 +$26 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $500 $517 +$17 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 62¢ $300 $362 +$62 (+21%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 26¢ $300 $248 −$52 (-17%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $481 −$481 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $663 −$663 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $772 −$772 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,632 −$1,632 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $769 −$769 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $968 −$968 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,917 −$1,917 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,834 −$1,834 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $482 −$482 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2,403 −$2,403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $383 −$383 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $767 −$767 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2,023 −$2,023 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,832 −$1,832 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $870 −$870 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $758 −$758 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1,479 −$1,479 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $479 −$479 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $968 −$968 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,538 −$1,538 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2,410 −$2,410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,810 −$1,810 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,139 −$1,139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $776 −$776 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $862 −$862 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,936 −$1,936 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,447 −$1,447 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $963 −$963 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2,088 −$2,088 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,149 −$1,149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $285 −$285 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $964 −$964 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $673 −$673 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1,446 −$1,446 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2,613 −$2,613 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $966 −$966 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $930 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $518 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $278 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $305 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $306 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $407 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $409 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $304 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $306 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $651 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $958 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $740 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,019 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $786 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $810 17h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $407 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $305 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $306 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $406 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $304 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $407 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $305 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,487.11 · official $4,504.64 (match) · 3500 history records