Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e3e…ce36
crypto · 321 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$695 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$689 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$689
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses121 / 194
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)315 / 321
History coverage34d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 315 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$39
14 days−$68
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? Yes 91¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? No 34¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ? No 44¢ 29¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Booming" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? No 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? No 93¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$13 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $108 −$3 -2%
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Ques Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Starmer say "King" or "Queen" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Jun 10 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Starmer say "Sport" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 10 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 10 $34 +$32 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $28 −$11 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $46 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $43 −$21 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $79 −$18 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Starmer say "Goon" or "Gooner" during the next Prime Minister's Q Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $59 +$46 +78%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $35 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 30 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 30 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $5 +$12 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $26 +$9 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$566
weather 10% −$178
politics 4% +$59
world 2% −$9
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$5
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Germany vs. Curaçao en BUY 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -29.9% -36.6% 43% 33% -15.4%
≤30d 190 -22.7% -30.1% 37% 32% -22.0%
≤90d 315 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 34% -17.1%
all 315 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 34% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 34% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 29% -25.0%
15% -38.1% 21% -32.3%
20% -44.2% 17% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.48 · official $28.48 (match) · 1058 history records