Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e3f…675c weather 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,992 (+1%) realized +$2,985 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%159W / 7L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,438per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$148
14 days+$1,461
30 days+$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$310
other 5% +$328
finance 5% +$917
sports 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 125 +1.7% -8.0% 96% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 166 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 3% -9.3%
all 166 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$3,689) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$1,035 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$5,026
Realized+$2,985
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses159 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)166 / 171
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$3,438
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2,848 $2,845 −$3 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,512 $1,513 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $413 $421 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+0%)
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? Down 99¢ 100¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $2,028 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1,661 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? Jun 23 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $209 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $1,440 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 22 $3,079 +$19 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 22 $740 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 22 $342 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 22 $7,523 +$15 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 22 $4,769 +$15 +0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2,951 +$8 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,009 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $383 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5,103 +$50 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,303 +$64 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $311 +$15 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $133 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $333 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $965 +$10 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $234 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $545 +$39 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5,196 +$27 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8,778 +$26 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $12,191 +$38 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2,176 +$11 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $448 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $27,144 +$917 +3%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $475 +$13 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6,716 +$25 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4,208 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $508 +$2 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $287 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,885 +$17 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2,232 +$11 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4,928 +$39 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $180 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,990 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $42 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $653 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $321 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $373 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 5h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 99¢ $66 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $403 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,026.37 · official $5,026.37 (match) · 3500 history records