Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e41…dab5 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-15%) realized −$71 · open −$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$615
other 8% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 36% -29.3%
≤30d 11 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 36% -29.3%
≤90d 11 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 36% -29.3%
all 26 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 31% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 31% -37.9%
10% -47.1% 27% -43.9%
15% -52.2% 23% -49.3%
20% -56.9% 15% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$39 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage221d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Spirit 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 55¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $303 −$174 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$30 +146%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$66 +65%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 18 $31 +$59 +194%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Dec 01 $50 −$33 -67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) Dec 01 $60 +$28 +47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) Nov 30 $20 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs The Huns Esports (BO3) Nov 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Rare Atom (BO1) Nov 24 $20 −$14 -69%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Lynn Vision (BO1) Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner Nov 14 $176 −$176 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Nov 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Nov 12 $146 +$29 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Passion UA (BO3) Nov 12 $20 +$7 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 28¢ $129 59m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $56 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $5 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 93¢ $50 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $51 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 52¢ $101 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 37¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $167 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 15h
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $31 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 17¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $51 27h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $90 27h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 33¢ $31 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 33¢ $10 200d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner SELL NIP 25¢ $17 200d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner BUY NIP 75¢ $50 200d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) SELL FaZe 54¢ $22 201d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) BUY FaZe 50¢ $20 201d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $60 201d
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs The Huns Esports (BO3) BUY The Huns Esports 34¢ $10 205d
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Rare Atom (BO1) SELL Rare Atom 10¢ $6 207d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Lynn Vision (BO1) BUY Lynn Vision 31¢ $10 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.69 · official $97.69 (match) · 52 history records