Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e43…3d79 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized −$22 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$7
crypto 4% −$10
world 3% +$4
tech 1% $0
politics 1% −$3
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -21.1%
≤30d 2 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -21.1%
≤90d 2 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -21.1%
all 31 -16.0% -24.0% 39% 32% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 32% -26.3%
10% -31.3% 23% -33.4%
15% -37.9% 16% -39.8%
20% -44.0% 13% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage155d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $1 $0 +20%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $1 $0 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 1? Feb 04 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4PM ET Feb 04 $1 +$1 +96%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -91%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 31 $3 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? Jan 30 $1 $0 +13%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -93%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -73%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrien Saddier win the 2026 The American Express tournament? Jan 26 $1 $0 +2%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 21 $1 +$3 +294%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Elon" or "Musk" be said during the first episode of the Joe Roga Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Greenland" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exp Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike ≤3 countries in January 2026? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $1 +$6 +613%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 20 $1 $0 +39%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $58 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $58 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 134d
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars BUY St. Francis (PA) Red Flash 10¢ $1 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? BUY Yes $1 140d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-01-31? BUY Yes $1 144d
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31? SELL Yes $0 144d
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 144d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 1? BUY No 57¢ $1 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 144d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Eternal Fire 11¢ $1 145d
Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 145d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? SELL Yes $0 145d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No 24¢ $0 145d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes $0 145d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? BUY No $1 149d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5 153d
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 153d
Will Adrien Saddier win the 2026 The American Express tournament? BUY No 98¢ $1 155d
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 155d
Will "Elon" or "Musk" be said during the first episode of the Joe Roga BUY Yes 11¢ $1 155d
Will "Greenland" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exp BUY Yes 11¢ $1 155d
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie BUY Yes 12¢ $1 155d
Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? BUY No 87¢ $1 155d
Will the US strike ≤3 countries in January 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 155d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.63 · official $219.63 (match) · 53 history records