Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e48…2cb8 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$988 (-64%) realized −$988 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$1,049
14 days−$1,049
30 days−$1,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$1,059
other 10% +$15
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.3% -28.8% 62% 25% -71.0%
≤30d 8 -21.3% -28.8% 62% 25% -71.0%
≤90d 8 -21.3% -28.8% 62% 25% -71.0%
all 8 -21.3% -28.8% 62% 25% -71.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 25% -71.0%
10% -35.6% 12% -73.8%
15% -41.8% 12% -76.3%
20% -47.5% 0% -78.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$355 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$988
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage16d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$8 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $210 −$168 -80%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 19 $1,188 −$891 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records