Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1E 0x1e49…cc2a other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 745d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,319 (-3%) realized −$2,727 · open +$408
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%70W / 46L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$650per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$3,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days+$14
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$956
crypto 14% −$49
finance 11% +$681
economics 9% −$1,721
politics 3% −$420
world 3% −$1,334
sports 2% +$981
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.3% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 5 +14.4% +3.5% 40% 40% -29.8%
≤90d 9 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 33% -8.0%
all 116 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 36% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -13.2%
10% -17.9% 29% -21.5%
15% -25.8% 22% -29.1%
20% -33.1% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$914) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$287 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

745d coverage
Net worth$3,638
Realized−$2,727
Unrealized+$408
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses70 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions13
Markets (closed)116 / 130
History coverage745d
Avg bet$650
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 75¢ $1,232 $1,812 +$580 (+47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $489 $375 −$114 (-23%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $217 $245 +$28 (+13%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $327 $244 −$84 (-26%)
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 96¢ 99¢ $235 $243 +$7 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $230 $222 −$8 (-3%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $185 $183 −$2 (-1%)
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 99¢ $157 $165 +$8 (+5%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 73¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+28%)
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $6 −$8 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $230 −$10 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $504 −$130 -26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 25 $9 +$16 +178%
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl May 23 $439 +$739 +168%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Apr 22 $455 −$220 -48%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? Apr 22 $200 −$200 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? Apr 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $359 +$89 +25%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 05 $968 −$968 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 05 $1,047 −$1,046 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-02? Feb 04 $253 +$191 +75%
Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $828 +$71 +8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $426 −$424 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $238 +$27 +12%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $36 +$50 +139%
Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January? Jan 28 $68 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahçe win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jan 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-17? Jan 19 $26 +$21 +82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 13? Jan 16 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $200 +$23 +12%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $1,874 −$386 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 12? Jan 13 $215 +$99 +46%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 9? Jan 12 $37 +$53 +143%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? Jan 09 $96 +$304 +317%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $57 +$3 +5%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $224 +$12 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $395 +$5 +1%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $724 +$43 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 29? Jan 05 $318 −$318 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 26? Jan 05 $463 −$463 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 05 $3,659 +$41 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 2? Jan 03 $1,655 +$383 +23%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 31 $848 −$848 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $1,820 +$100 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 30? Dec 31 $1,221 +$274 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $99 −$84 -85%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 29 $2,096 +$4 +0%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $201 +$99 +49%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $510 +$490 +96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $4,632 +$21 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $193 1h
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 8h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $234 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 30h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $215 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 44¢ $38 5d
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 5d
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 44¢ $174 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 38¢ $387 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 36¢ $1 6d
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $230 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $155 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 7d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $184 7d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $128 7d
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 7d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $193 7d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 7d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $388 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,638.08 · official $3,638.11 (match) · 800 history records