Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

1E 0x1e49…a273 sports 4 markets active 7d ago coverage 54d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,051 (-82%) realized −$1,051 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$321per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-40.3%	-46.0%	0%	0%	-86.2%
≤90d	4	-24.5%	-31.7%	25%	25%	-84.7%
all	4	-24.5%	-31.7%	25%	25%	-84.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.7%	25%	-84.7%
10%	-38.2%	25%	-86.2%
15%	-44.2%	0%	-87.5%
20%	-49.7%	0%	-88.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$354 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,051

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage54d

Avg bet$321

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$1,052	−$1,040	-99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$103	−$15	-15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Jun 18	$111	−$7	-6%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Apr 28	$19	+$4	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$1,052	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$88	7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	SELL Yes	80¢	$104	9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	84¢	$111	9d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	81¢	$19	60d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records