Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e4b…afdd crypto 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%184W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$41
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 39% -10.5%
≤30d 189 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 189 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 4% -9.4%
all 189 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$38 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses184 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage22d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $114 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $55 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $119 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $119 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $119 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $119 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $114 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $119 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $114 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $114 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $114 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $114 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $114 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records