Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e50…04ff world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$2
other 17% +$1
politics 7% −$2
sports 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +2.1% -7.7% 56% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 8% -9.1%
all 35 -1.9% -11.2% 66% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage461d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $26 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $43 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Feds raid Jay-Z before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 16 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $46 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $46 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 35h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $7 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $41 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $43 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $43 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $43 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.85 · official $41.85 (match) · 82 history records