Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e52…381b crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%28W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$44
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$81
world 4% −$30
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.2% -19.6% 31% 14% -13.4%
≤30d 68 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 26% -13.7%
≤90d 68 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 26% -13.7%
all 70 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 27% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 27% -15.1%
10% -26.1% 13% -23.2%
15% -33.2% 7% -30.6%
20% -39.7% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage140d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $150 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $215 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $85 −$25 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $8 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.82 · official $9.82 (match) · 258 history records