Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e53…14e7 crypto 1356 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$839 (-2%) realized −$830 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%665W / 690L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,383
weather 9% −$524
other 3% −$263
sports 0% +$2
world 0% −$10
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -18.7% -26.4% 38% 38% -26.7%
≤30d 491 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 44% -20.2%
≤90d 1355 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 47% -15.4%
all 1355 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 47% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 47% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 46% -23.5%
15% -30.1% 43% -30.9%
20% -37.0% 40% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$830
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses665 / 690
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1355 / 1356
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 41¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$16 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$17 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$69 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$33 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $15.00 · 3500 history records