Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e55…a3fb other 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$712 (+11%) realized +$696 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 61L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days+$429
14 days+$438
30 days+$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$772
sports 18% −$235
crypto 5% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +7.6% -2.6% 35% 35% -10.7%
≤30d 93 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 33% -10.4%
≤90d 93 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 33% -10.4%
all 93 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 33% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 31% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 29% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$36 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$696
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 61
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage11d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $301 $318 +$17 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $32 +$71 +223%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $512 −$405 -79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $205 +$67 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $103 −$31 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $307 +$221 +72%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $245 +$148 +60%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$18 +38%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -55%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +54%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $62 −$60 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 −$17 -76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $83 −$22 -27%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $194 +$118 +61%
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $32 −$22 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$170 -82%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$79 -76%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 +$123 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $32 +$1,140 +3537%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +41%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 +$95 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$28 +137%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $63 −$8 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$14 -15%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $11 +$26 +225%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 7m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $152 45m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $55 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $53 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $103 18h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $52 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $205 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $205 18h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $11 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $72 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $102 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $204 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $11 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $92 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $256 38h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $1 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $41 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.14 · official $517.14 (match) · 214 history records