Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e5a…935f crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39,363 (-58%) realized −$34,747 · open −$4,616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate16%31W / 160L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$4,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$281
14 days−$6,478
30 days−$6,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% −$15,637
crypto 29% −$10,646
other 27% −$10,656
world 4% −$2,203
economics 0% −$40
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -43.5% -48.9% 17% 17% +24.0%
≤30d 56 -62.2% -65.8% 14% 14% -73.8%
≤90d 170 -63.9% -67.4% 12% 12% -72.4%
all 191 -43.2% -48.6% 16% 15% -66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 15% -66.1%
10% -53.5% 13% -69.4%
15% -58.0% 11% -72.3%
20% -62.1% 10% -75.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$264 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$4,243
Realized−$34,747
Unrealized−$4,616
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses31 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Open positions42
Markets (closed)191 / 196
History coverage429d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,241 $1,108 −$133 (-11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $924 $627 −$297 (-32%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $299 $338 +$38 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $221 $338 +$117 (+53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? No 8¢ 8¢ $295 $296 +$1 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $478 $288 −$189 (-40%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $3,298 $117 −$3,181 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 42¢ $10 $106 +$97 (+1005%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $279 $90 −$189 (-68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 15¢ 12¢ $114 $90 −$24 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $75 $82 +$8 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $15 $82 +$67 (+433%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $15 $78 +$63 (+407%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $250 $77 −$173 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $15 $74 +$59 (+381%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 10¢ 14¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 3¢ 4¢ $46 $60 +$15 (+32%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 8¢ 8¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $26 $51 +$25 (+98%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 65¢ 16¢ $160 $40 −$120 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $15 $34 +$19 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $14 $32 +$17 (+121%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $401 $24 −$377 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? No 11¢ 10¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$24 -252%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$35 -369%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$30 -519%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$32 -338%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$36 -187%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $164 +$886 +540%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $161 −$111 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $118 +$31 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$96 +345%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $94 +$13 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $148 −$147 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$11 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$26 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $98 −$83 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $43 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $359 −$340 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $469 +$131 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 06 $161 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $85 −$80 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $43 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $88 −$82 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 04 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 04 $447 −$447 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 04 $117 −$117 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $520 −$518 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Jun 04 $561 −$561 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 04 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 04 $1,402 −$1,402 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $3 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $2 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $0 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $2 41m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 11¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 7¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 15¢ $79 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 14¢ $42 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 12¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 12¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,243.45 · official $4,243.59 (match) · 3242 history records