Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1E 0x1e5e…e3a9 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$85 (+43%) realized +$88 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip

Net edge+79%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$100

7 days+$97

14 days+$97

30 days+$97

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+79.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+113.2%	+92.9%	62%	62%	+77.6%
≤30d	13	+113.2%	+92.9%	62%	62%	+77.6%
≤90d	14	+98.0%	+79.2%	57%	57%	+61.8%
all	14	+98.0%	+79.2%	57%	57%	+61.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+79.2%	57%	+61.8%
10%	+62.0%	57%	+46.3%
15%	+46.4%	57%	+32.1%
20%	+32.0%	57%	+19.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +98% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +67% → late +129% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage

Net worth$82

Realized+$88

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)14 / 22

History coverage52d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-8%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Yes	44¢	44¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	42¢	40¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	23¢	20¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$50	+487%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia?	Jun 15	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$13	+262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$4	+$9	+226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$6	+60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$5	+$31	+596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5	+$6	+109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$17	+165%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	Apr 25	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	6h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	8h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$6	28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	30¢	$4	30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	35h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	43h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY No	24¢	$10	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	4d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	51d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.87 · official $81.87 (match) · 30 history records