Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e5e…40fb weather 816 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,026 (-18%) realized −$8,036 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate78%634W / 179L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day83.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$974
14 days−$2,206
30 days−$4,827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$4,826
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -15.5% -23.6% 73% 48% -27.3%
≤30d 792 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 46% -19.6%
≤90d 813 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 46% -19.5%
all 813 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 46% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 46% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 18% -27.2%
15% -30.2% 6% -34.3%
20% -37.1% 3% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$54 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$8,036
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses634 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)813 / 816
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $59 $64 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $47 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $59 +$14 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $239 −$239 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $49 −$48 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $44 −$35 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$39 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$16 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$38 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $46 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $42 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $57 +$9 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $49 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $149 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$33 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $208 −$208 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$14 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$84 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$15 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$47 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$35 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $61 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $250 +$38 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $41 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $49 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 86¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 86¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 86¢ $22 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 86¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 86¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.43 · official $168.36 (match) · 3500 history records