Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e5e…05e3 other 57 markets active 7d ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$171 (-31%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%13W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$109
14 days−$109
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
crypto 41% −$98
sports 10% −$41
weather 2% −$7
politics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -56.6% -60.8% 19% 19% -57.0%
≤30d 16 -56.6% -60.8% 19% 19% -57.0%
≤90d 16 -56.6% -60.8% 19% 19% -57.0%
all 57 -28.2% -35.0% 23% 21% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 21% -42.8%
10% -41.3% 18% -48.2%
15% -46.9% 16% -53.2%
20% -52.1% 16% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses13 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage471d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$11 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$10 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $20 +$54 +269%
Jazz vs. Pistons Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $3 +$10 +317%
Utah vs. Maple Leafs Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 05 $22 −$4 -19%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Red Wings vs. Golden Knights Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Kings Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Panthers vs. Ducks Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $25 +$67 +270%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $9 −$4 -43%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-03? Nov 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Nov 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Fulham win on 2025-03-08? Mar 06 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $1 $0 +25%
Warriors vs. 76ers Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Predators vs. Islanders Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bruins vs. Penguins Mar 02 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Mar 01 $2 $0 -4%
Wild vs. Avalanche Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Stars Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Mar 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? Feb 28 $1 +$7 +724%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records