Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1e60…536b sports 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,009 (+5%) realized +$1,010 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%98W / 172L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$320est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$141
14 days−$2,385
30 days−$2,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$884
other 23% −$153
crypto 1% −$93
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 34% -16.8%
≤30d 149 -20.6% -28.2% 31% 30% -33.9%
≤90d 270 +4.0% -5.9% 36% 36% -6.4%
all 270 +4.0% -5.9% 36% 36% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 36% -6.4%
10% -14.9% 34% -15.4%
15% -23.1% 33% -23.6%
20% -30.7% 31% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$47 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1,010
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses98 / 172
Est. fees paid−$320
Open positions1
Markets (closed)270 / 271
History coverage137d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 −$42 -59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $50 +$22 +43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $112 +$10 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $120 +$92 +77%
ITF Tokyo: Masamichi Imamura vs Hunter Heck Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$19 -62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$20 +20%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $110 −$79 -72%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 −$46 -61%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $11 +$18 +158%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $59 +$72 +121%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$20 -20%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$55 +108%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $9 −$7 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $72 +$38 +54%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $120 −$48 -40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 +$67 +338%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $13 +$17 +127%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $19 +$10 +54%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +95%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $37 −$24 -65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $36 −$16 -45%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $14 +$27 +194%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $208 +$26 +12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$18 +114%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $132 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $72 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $72 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 69¢ $50 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $122 19h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 91¢ $112 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $212 19h
ITF Tokyo: Masamichi Imamura vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 34¢ $12 19h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 12¢ $12 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $120 19h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 30¢ $31 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $120 19h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 16¢ $31 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $100 21h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $110 21h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $26 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 3d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 40¢ $41 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 27¢ $19 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $60 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $30 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $19 3d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 99¢ $132 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 44¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.47 · official $30.47 (match) · 789 history records