Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1e62…79f1 sports 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$693 (+11%) realized +$685 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%193W / 222L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day112.3pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$602
other 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 +11.3% +0.7% 47% 45% +0.3%
≤30d 415 +11.3% +0.7% 47% 45% +0.3%
≤90d 415 +11.3% +0.7% 47% 45% +0.3%
all 415 +11.3% +0.7% 47% 45% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 45% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 42% -9.3%
15% -17.7% 39% -18.1%
20% -25.8% 36% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,152
Realized+$685
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses193 / 222
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions32
Markets (closed)415 / 447
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day112.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Chicago Cubs 42¢ 96¢ $33 $74 +$41 (+127%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Over 37¢ 100¢ $18 $50 +$31 (+169%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Chicago Cubs 53¢ 95¢ $26 $46 +$21 (+79%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+22%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 74¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+59%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Under 59¢ 57¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Under 56¢ 55¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 65¢ 98¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 4.5 Corners Under 75¢ 52¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-31%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Under 55¢ 52¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Over 42¢ 42¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Under 60¢ 52¢ $24 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Under 68¢ 42¢ $30 $19 −$12 (-38%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Over 47¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 64¢ 90¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 33¢ 46¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+40%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Frances Tiafoe 36¢ 40¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Monaco 64¢ 66¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Under 39¢ 27¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-31%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Over 52¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Titouan Droguet 60¢ 60¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 86¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+140%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 28¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $26 +$20 +75%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $55 −$10 -17%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $52 −$34 -66%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $46 +$42 +91%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $19 +$27 +141%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $15 +$29 +190%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $14 +$25 +182%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $17 −$16 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $69 −$18 -26%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $60 −$14 -24%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $1 +$1 +167%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $6 +$8 +142%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $4 +$11 +276%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$5 +13%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $13 +$14 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $18 +$12 +70%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 19 $60 −$3 -5%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 19 $35 +$23 +64%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 19 $37 +$18 +49%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $62 −$3 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $16 +$24 +152%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $26 +$25 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $26 +$26 +101%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $24 +$32 +135%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $22 +$34 +158%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 19 $17 +$35 +206%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 +$36 +242%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $71 +$10 +14%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $36 +$64 +180%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $8 7m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 54¢ $3 40m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 44m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $8 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 27¢ $6 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $11 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $46 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 34¢ $6 1h
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Monaco 64¢ $9 1h
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Paris Basketball 36¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 64¢ $10 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $26 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $21 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 37¢ $19 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 63¢ $45 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $26 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $20 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $33 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $24 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 42¢ $3 2h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $11 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 60¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,152.40 · official $1,153.30 (match) · 971 history records