Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e62…8bb7 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-4%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$223
other 42% +$192
world 1% −$23
politics 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.1% -21.4% 40% 40% -11.4%
≤30d 15 -13.1% -21.4% 40% 40% -11.4%
≤90d 18 -27.6% -34.5% 33% 33% -14.8%
all 18 -27.6% -34.5% 33% 33% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 33% -14.8%
10% -40.8% 22% -22.9%
15% -46.5% 17% -30.4%
20% -51.7% 17% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$49 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage69d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $84 −$3 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$44 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $440 −$400 -91%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 +$206 +82%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $214 +$36 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $113 +$151 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$12 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $68 −$11 -17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$43 +30%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Apr 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $20 −$19 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 31¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $84 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $40 18h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $17 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $440 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $250 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $251 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $214 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $264 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $113 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $69 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $57 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $68 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 82¢ $27 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $27 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $48 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $79.00 · 38 history records