Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e63…7267
politics · 284 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses82 / 169
Open positions33
Markets (closed)251 / 284
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day700.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 33 History 251 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +31%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $134 +$2 +1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$4
other 27% +$2
culture 10% +$3
world 7% +$2
economics 6% −$1
tech 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 34m
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 34m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1 34m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 34m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $3 34m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 34m
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1 35m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 35m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 35m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 35m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 35m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 35m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 35m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 35m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $3 35m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 4% -9.4%
≤30d 251 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 251 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 4% -9.4%
all 251 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover700.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 4% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.86 · official $17.81 · 3500 history records