Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e63…e417 crypto 85 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-16%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%22W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$63
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$71
world 3% −$10
politics 1% −$6
economics 1% −$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -37.6% -43.6% 33% 28% -27.5%
≤30d 84 -29.4% -36.1% 26% 23% -32.2%
≤90d 84 -29.4% -36.1% 26% 23% -32.2%
all 84 -29.4% -36.1% 26% 23% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 23% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 20% -38.6%
15% -47.8% 19% -44.6%
20% -52.9% 14% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses22 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$24 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$19 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 41h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 210 history records