Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1e64…c9d2 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+12%) realized +$58 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$5
14 days+$19
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$14
world 20% +$18
sports 8% +$12
politics 8% $0
crypto 8% +$5
finance 2% +$4
culture 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 21 -2.9% -12.1% 43% 38% -5.2%
≤90d 47 +12.9% +2.2% 43% 40% +1.9%
all 47 +12.9% +2.2% 43% 40% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 40% +1.9%
10% -7.6% 32% -7.9%
15% -16.5% 30% -16.8%
20% -24.7% 17% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $42 +$11 +26%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$7 -38%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -15%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $21 +$9 +41%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 +$3 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 04 $2 $0 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $6 −$2 -23%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $15 +$2 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $10 +$4 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $10 +$34 +335%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $12 −$3 -26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $12 +$4 +38%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 26 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$4 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $10 −$1 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $10 −$2 -25%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +50%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +96%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 08 $2 $0 -22%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $14 20h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 26h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 26h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $42 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $8 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $19 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $16 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes $17 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 55¢ $30 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.31 · official $29.31 (match) · 193 history records