Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e65…db7e world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$6
other 23% −$3
politics 19% −$1
sports 16% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 5% -8.7%
≤90d 70 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 3% -9.4%
all 90 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage526d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $79 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $56 −$3 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -23%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $46 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $69 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $27 +$2 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $71 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $28 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $28 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $91 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1 $0 -36%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $29 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $14 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $25 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $39 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $15 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.46 · official $37.96 · 329 history records