trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 10 | $22 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 21 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? | May 05 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | May 05 | $9 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | May 05 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 30 | $83 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 29 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will no new pope be elected in 2025? | Apr 29 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Apr 29 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 29 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 28 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci | Apr 28 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 19 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 58% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.2% |