Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e69…54b0 sports 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$150 (+7%) realized +$134 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%216W / 108L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day98.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$36
other 19% +$64
crypto 5% +$10
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 44% -4.8%
≤30d 324 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 44% -4.8%
≤90d 324 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 44% -4.8%
all 324 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 44% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 44% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 29% -13.9%
15% -29.0% 21% -22.3%
20% -36.0% 13% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses216 / 108
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions33
Markets (closed)324 / 357
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 84¢ 100¢ $122 $145 +$23 (+19%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 30? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 88¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 85¢ 80¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29? No 66¢ 74¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 70¢ 92¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 29? No 79¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5? No 35¢ 56¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+61%)
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Brandon Nakashima 88¢ 95¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 78¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 56¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Jun 29 $2 $0 +5%
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko Jun 29 $59 −$21 -35%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +65%
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $1 $0 +29%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $4 −$2 -46%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $13 −$8 -62%
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 29 $10 +$7 +66%
Wimbledon WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emiliana Arango Jun 29 $1 +$2 +129%
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 29 $10 +$3 +28%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $8 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $11 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $3 $0 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $7 +$2 +34%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $7 $0 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $16 −$4 -23%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $13 $0 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 29 $6 $0 +2%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $7 +$1 +15%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $2 $0 +9%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $12 +$3 +26%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $8 +$7 +86%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $30 +$27 +90%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1 $0 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $14 −$7 -48%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $7 $0 +5%
Wimbledon WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 29 $24 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 29 $66 −$35 -53%
Wimbledon WTA: Mimi Xu vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $3 −$1 -46%
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen Jun 29 $2 +$1 +32%
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jun 29 $17 +$3 +16%
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 29 $34 +$18 +52%
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 29 $3 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 29 $8 +$5 +68%
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Jun 29 $1 +$1 +70%
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 84¢ $122 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $24 2h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Dmitry Popko 53¢ $16 2h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Dmitry Popko 53¢ $16 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Yibing Wu 22¢ $5 2h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Juan Pablo Varillas 63¢ $18 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 5¢ $3 2h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Juan Pablo Varillas 89¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 43¢ $3 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emiliana Arango BUY Anastasia Gasanova 43¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY No 80¢ $4 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Brandon Nakashima 88¢ $4 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 55¢ $3 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 83¢ $4 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 4h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $6 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Magda Linette 33¢ $2 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 74¢ $5 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Brazil 87¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.37 · official $411.11 (match) · 840 history records