Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1E 0x1e6b…a1be crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,046 (-70%) realized −$1,043 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$167per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	1	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	8	-5.3%	-14.4%	75%	12%	-74.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.4%	12%	-74.6%
10%	-22.5%	12%	-77.0%
15%	-30.0%	12%	-79.3%
20%	-36.9%	12%	-81.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

83% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$546 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized−$1,043

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage241d

Avg bet$167

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	No	49¢	46¢	$48	$45	−$3 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 15	$86	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	Mar 17	$86	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?	Feb 02	$86	$0	+0%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Jan 01	$74	−$74	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?	Jan 01	$74	$0	+0%
76ers vs. Knicks	Dec 21	$29	+$45	+156%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?	Dec 19	$1	$0	+0%
Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw?	Oct 29	$1,018	−$1,018	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	49¢	$38	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	49¢	$11	2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$86	33d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$86	127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?	BUY No	100¢	$86	158d
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	BUY No	68¢	$74	176d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY No	100¢	$74	188d
76ers vs. Knicks	BUY 76ers	39¢	$29	190d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?	BUY No	100¢	$1	219d
Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw?	BUY No	72¢	$1,018	241d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.65 · official $44.66 (match) · 17 history records