Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1E 0x1e6f…e2d3 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$253 (-2%) realized −$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$261
other 3% +$2
sports 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 5 +5.5% -4.6% 100% 20% -2.9%
≤90d 10 +5.3% -4.8% 90% 30% -23.1%
all 77 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 42% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 42% -11.7%
10% -20.4% 39% -20.1%
15% -28.1% 38% -27.9%
20% -35.2% 38% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage248d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Belgium 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $28 +$3 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Ajdin Hrustic: 4+ shots Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 14 $12 +$13 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9PM ET Apr 09 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 08 $71 $0 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 15 $8,475 −$9 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $103 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 07 $35 +$35 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 8? Feb 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 04 $107 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 30 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 22 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 16 $31 +$31 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 14 $38 +$38 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 09 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 07 $22 +$22 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 01 $18 +$18 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Nov 29 $16 +$16 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 26 $17 +$17 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 24 $27 +$27 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 12AM ET Nov 23 $19 +$19 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET Nov 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 21 $26 +$26 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 18, 11PM ET Nov 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 18 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 18 $110 +$110 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1AM ET Nov 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 14 $20 +$20 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY Belgium 100¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $13 30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $11 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $28 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $24 10d
Ajdin Hrustic: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $7 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $35 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $33 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 100¢ $71 78d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? BUY No 100¢ $71 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $398 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $398 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,352 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.55 · official $99.55 (match) · 156 history records